This 2023 is in its final stretch. There are only 46 days left and the economy will close with a dynamism that no analyst visualized at the beginning of the year.
Looking ahead to the electoral process, the scenario could not be better for Claudia Sheinbaum and the official match. The tight one in the rice is Acapulco, but the same president Andrés Manuel López Obrador He has done everything possible to minimize it, despite the hardships of a million people.
Two factors have been fundamental for the year’s GDP to grow up to 3.5%: the US did not enter a recession and this has boosted our exports and remittances.
The other is the internal market. Consumption improved due to a greater wage bill via jobs and salaries due to recent minimum increases, pressure at other levels and the outsourcing reform. The strengthening of informality and the resources that organized crime injects into the country also help.
However, there are experts who estimate that this inertia will not be able to be maintained in 2024. For example, the pace of investment, which is the other component, will only be maintained in the first quarter due to the elections and the logical uncertainty.
The expansive spending outlined by SHCP will help Rogelio Ramírez de la O, some nearshoring, and not so much the efforts to increase productive capacity that large companies have made. Of the FDI registered as of September by Economía de Raquel Buenrostro for 32,926 million dollars, 76% is reinvestment of profits.
There are also welfare programs that have gained more and more weight in the GDP. The most important, that of older adults, which, when universalized, benefits the poor and the rich. There are 10.4 million people.
This, like the iconic works that the current government will inherit, Dos Bocas, Tren Maya, the AIFA, Tulum, the Interoceánico, Mexicana to name a few, will add to pressures that are already visible in public finances and that will become evident in 2024 and fitter in 2025, including Pemex from Octavio Romero. Obviously less room for productive public investment.
In that sense, the bonanza could be ephemeral, especially if a downturn in economic activity in the US materializes by the end of next year. We will see.
THEY SAVE THE SHCP-CNBV FACE WITH THE STOCK MARKET LAW AND NO APPETITE
Fresh air for the stock market with the changes to the Stock Market Law that the deputies approved this Wednesday. The AMIB of Alvaro García Pimentel SHCP and CNBV have already achieved it Jesus of the Fountain It allows them to save face that something was done in the face of the predictions of investment bankers who assure that more delistings are coming in the BMV of José-Oriol Bosch. The problem is that simplified issues to allow SMEs to enter the stock market are not exactly appetizing for funds, insurers and Afores. Therein lies the challenge.
PEMEX’S PROVEN RESERVES VANISH AND ONLY 11.8 YEARS
A couple of data to rescue from the study carried out by the CIEP that he directs Alejandra Macias about Pemex. The oil company Octavio Romero It is poorly managed and is another burden on public finances with liabilities 46% greater than its assets. Its reserves, which in 2012 were 20,373 million barrels of oil equivalent (mbpce), were reduced in 2022 to 11,431 mbpce, that is, 44% was extracted in the last decade. It is estimated that current reserves can be exhausted in 11.8 years given the meager investment.
CAJA LIBERTAD AVAL OF GREAT PLACE TO WORK AND 2,000 EMPLOYEES
It turns out the sofipo Caja Libertad that commands Silvia Lavalle just received recognition from Great Place to Work as one of the best places to work. With 60 years of history, it has more than 2,000 employees, 2.5 million clients and 144 branches. Of course, it has also pushed its APP hard.