In the last year of government of the President Andrés Manuel López Obradorthe Mexican economy will slow downhowever, will have a better closure than Enrique Peña Nieto’saccording to the latest estimates from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).
For him At the end of 2024, the OECD predicts that Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will have an increase of 2.5 percent and Banxico projects a growth of three percent; levels that exceed what Enrique Peña Nieto reported in the last year, when the economy grew two percent.
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“It is expected that the economy will grow 2.5 percent next year and two percent in 2025. Private consumption will be a key driver, supported by low unemployment and rising real wages. “Private investment will progressively benefit from the transfer of manufacturing activity to Mexico,” stated the OECD in its latest Economic Outlook report.
Nevertheless, To take advantage of the potential of GDP and nearshoring, the OECD considered it necessary to invest more in infrastructure and education, the latter mainly to have the qualified workforce that foreign companies will look for in the country.
By the end of 2023, The international organization expects Mexico to grow 3.4 percenthigher than the estimate of 3.3 percent a few months ago.
If the OECD expectation is met, Mexico will surpass countries like Brazil and Chile in 2024 that will grow 1.8 percent, Colombia 1.4 percent and Peru 2.3 percent.
The vision of OECD is similar to that of Banxicothat yesterday it also raised its forecast for economic activity in 2024 from 2.1 to three percent. For 2023, it foresees an increase of 3.3 percent.
“Despite the forecast of a slowdown in external demand is maintained, the expectation is for growth robust for the year as a whole, supported by internal spending,” indicated the institution headed by Victoria Rodríguez Ceja.
According to the central bank, it is essential that the country continues to advance in taking actions that allow it to achieve sustainable long-term growth.
“An environment conducive to the investment and the productive activityas well as adopt measures that promote better allocation of resources. This is for the benefit of the well-being of all Mexicans,” he said. Banxico when presenting its quarterly report on inflation, corresponding to July to September.
Regarding this improvement in the expectations of the GDP, Gabriel YorioUndersecretary of the Treasury, highlighted that So far the Mexican economy has a growth rate of at least 3.3 percent and given that good dynamism is expected to continue, in 2023 the country could grow up to 3.6 percent.
“What we would be expecting is in line with 2024 growthwhere we propose a range of 2.5 to 3.5 percent in the Economy Package”said Yorio while attending a Citibanamex.
2024 elections without economic risks
The 2024 presidential elections will not have any impact on Mexico’s business environment, assured the rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P).
“We consider that The current administration will continue to be prudent in the execution of economic policies. However, we do not expect political actions to substantially strengthen Mexico’s business environment,” the agency said in a report.
From your perspective, Economic activity in Mexico in 2024 will be marked by a slowdown environment and greater pressures due to rising prices for goods and services.
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“The High inflation has eroded household purchasing power and corporate profitswhile the increase in interest rates discourages the demand for credit,” indicated the credit risk rating agency.
In this regard, he stated that Next year a growth of 1.8 percent is expected, and by 2025 a two percent rebound is expected.