Mexico has suffered from multiple earthquakes that have severely punished different states of the Republic, including CDMX, which has suffered different traumatic episodes in September as in 1985, 2017 and most recently in 2022. Why does it seem that trembles more in the patriotic month?, the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) explains it.
According to EarthquakelistMexico was the second country in the world with the highest seismic activity during 2023, only below Chile. Mexico is located between the interaction of five tectonic plates: the Caribbean, Pacific, North American, Riviera and Cocos.
UNAM explains that more than 15 thousand earthquakes occur in Mexican territory during a yearthat is, the ground moves more than 40 times a day. These movements are not usually perceived, since the vast majority of them are less than magnitude 4.
A situation that has generated questions and theories is the multiple tremors that have hit the country in September, which have marked the memory of Mexicans, such as:
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Earthquake of September 19, 1985
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Earthquake of September 7, 2017
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Earthquake of September 19, 2017
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Earthquake of September 19, 2022
Many believe that such a coincidence is impossible, that this situation must have an explanation that has not yet been found, however, experts from UNAM reject this theory.
Does Mexico experience more earthquakes in September?
According to seismologists and engineers of the UNAM, In Mexico there are no more earthquakes in Septemberalthough there is a perception that this is the case, this is due to the recent tremors already mentioned. These make it clear that the sensation of more tremors during the patriotic month disappears if the earthquakes are measured on a much larger scale than the human one, as shown by the records of the National Seismological Service (SSN), carried out for 111 years.
The month with the highest frequency of earthquakes is Decemberbut this does not mean that their tremors are the most severe UNAM experts explained at a press conference held in 2021
In this regard, Arturo Iglesias Mendoza, head of the National Seismological Service (SSN) explained that “if we are guided by the history of major earthquakes, we will realize that this distribution does not have a peak in September, if the sample is taken sufficiently wide.”
Can there be another earthquake on September 19?
He September 19 It has been consecrated as a day not welcome in Mexican memory, because in almost 39 years, an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater has occurred on that date, 1985, 2017 and 2022; with fatal consequences in the first two.
In fact, the National Seismological Service (SSN) explains that this situation is unlikely, since September 19 is the only day of the year that records three earthquakes of such characteristics. Although, yes There are dates that record two earthquakes with the same characteristics.
The site UNAM Science details that since 1985, there have been at least 21 earthquakes of equal or greater magnitude than that of that year, but none with the devastating damage of that fateful tremor, for the same reason, this event is a precedent that is immediately remembered.
As to whether the earthquake could happen again on September 19, of course it is possible, since an earthquake can occur at any time and hour of the year. What needs to be analyzed is how likely it is to happen, a situation that UNAM experts have already carried out.
“The probabilities may also be lower than, for example, the probability of a comet or asteroid ∼2 km in diameter hitting Earth, of a person having a right-sided heart, the probability of winning the 6/49 lottery, or of being attacked by a shark,” said Dr. Miguel Ángel Jaimes of UNAM’s Engineering Institute, before a third earthquake occurred on September 19, 2022.
There was a probability of 0.026 percent, that is, almost impossible, and yet it happened, the website of the highest house of studies explains that It’s as if there were 100 million taxis in Mexico City and only 2 of them wanted to take us to our destination.
The probability of an earthquake of such magnitude occurring again for the fourth time on September 19 is still lower than the percentage for 2022, however, this does not mean that it cannot happen again.
(WARNING: VIDEO CONTAINS SEISMIC ALERT SOUND)
Guerrero Gap, a latent risk of earthquake
He National Seismological Service clarifies that, as time passes without an earthquake in a seismic region, the greater the probability of one occurring there. Scenario that introduces the famous Guerrero Gap, which covers from Acapulco to Petatlán on the Costa Grande of Guerrero.
The SSN details that between 1899 and 1911, four large-magnitude earthquakes occurred in the Guerrero Gap, with the most notable being those of magnitude 7.5 and 7.8. Since then, 112 years have passed without seismic activity in the mentioned region, so the probability that a large-magnitude earthquake could occur is high.
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In this regard, multiple studies have been carried out, both national and international, which have concluded that the Guerrero Gap could be shaken by an earthquake of magnitude greater than 7.5 degrees, which could cause severe damage in multiple states of the Republic, including Mexico City.
It is important to be aware of the risks of living in a country with high seismic activity like Mexico, which is why it is essential to develop a culture of prevention and take precautionary measures seriously, such as the drills.