Irascible, frank, spontaneous, the ultraliberal economist Javier Milei He became known thanks to the vehemence of his economic diatribes and broke the mold of Argentine political bipartisanship until reaching the Presidency this Sunday with the promise of dollarization.
Political scientist Laura Goyburu estimated that Milei’s victory represents “the beginning of a new Argentine political cycle.”
“It is quite difficult to anticipate how the alliances will be reconfigured in the coming months because today was an earthquake, especially for Kirchnerist Peronism,” he said.
Argentina has been governed since 2003 by the center-left Peronism of Néstor and Cristina Kirchner, except for a four-year interval of the government of right-wing Mauricio Macri (2015-19).
With annualized inflation of 143%, Argentina is going through its worst economic situation in more than 20 years.
To revive the third largest Latin American economy, Milei proposes drastic measures such as dollarization and the closure of the Central Bank, to end inflation and monetary issuance.
“I think he will take advantage of the first few months to make the reforms he had proposed. He will most likely try to make many decisions in the coming months,” Goyburu said.
“The president-elect will have to dissipate the different sources of uncertainty that affect Argentines. He will have to put on the leader’s uniform from moment zero,” Pablo Besmedrisnik, director and economist of Invenómica, told Reuters.
“Today’s instability and the sudden changes that are coming in the different macro variables are a fact. That is why it is important to describe the situation crudely, but at the same time indicate the first signs of an action plan that will end up forming the necessary plan of stabilization,” he said.
On the other hand, analyst Salvador Vitelli believes that we must wait for Milei’s behavior starting on November 20 to have a clearer vision of how the markets will move.
“We have to wait for what Milei says (as president, since in) many segments the market was accommodating to a victorious Massa,” he said. It is to be expected “a dollar a little more launched and futures a little hotter,” she said.
In the same sense, Roberto Geretto, of Fundcorp, pointed out that, unlike Milei’s incendiary speech during the primary elections in August, the restraint he showed in last month’s general elections could be well interpreted by the market.
“It is recognized that the implementation of a comprehensive stabilization plan will be urgent for the new administration, within a “honeymoon” that could be shorter than usual in view of the delicate context and where broad political support will be required,” said economist Gustavo Ber.
Milei denies that there is a wage gap between men and women, considers abortion a murder and believes that “policies that blame humans for climate change are false.”
It also rejects the consensus of 30,000 disappeared during the last dictatorship (1976-1983) established by human rights organizations, estimating that figure at less than a third.
With proposals like these, which before in Argentina “were marginal and now became central,” he became a leader of “unusual public relevance for the hardest right in Argentina,” Gabriel Vommaro, a political scientist at the University, told AFP. of San Martin.
Milei channeled the rage of those disappointed in Peronism
Milei, who has always worked in the private sector, created his party only in 2021, when he was elected deputy.
Although he obtained an important vote in the partial parliamentary elections in October, his force La Libertad Avanza has only seven of the 72 senators and 38 of the 257 deputies.
Sonia Dos Santos, a 36-year-old teacher, who euphorically celebrated Milei’s victory, told AFP that she does not believe that the economy will be dollarized.
“I don’t know if he’s really going to be able to do it. I don’t really agree with that. But I do agree with other proposals, like whoever steals has to pay,” he said.
“Milei’s proposals to lift up Argentina give us hope to stay,” said Carolina Carabajal, 20, “because young people, if this continues, have the idea of leaving the country.”
Milei channeled the rage of those who are disappointed in Peronism, the political current that has marked the history of Argentina since the 1940s, created around the figure of the populist military man Juan Domingo Perón.
“People begin to listen to an indignant man who seems alienated, and think ‘finally someone speaks like me’, because he has the frankness to say things,” Belén Amadeo, a political scientist at the University of Buenos Aires, told AFP.
However, his initially very confrontational style did not survive beyond the first electoral round in October, in which he received 30% of the votes.
He had to seek agreements and, for that, put out his inflammatory statements. Thus she obtained the support of her conservative and previous rival, Patricia Bullrich, and the approval of former liberal president Mauricio Macri (2015-2019).
Milei “has come to represent many standing citizens who are tired,” Macri said in a dialogue with the Wilson Center think tank in Washington.