Names, names and names / ANTAD quarterly sales rise 1.5% in real terms, consumption challenges in 2024, and difficult second half – El Sol de México

Even though this is an election year, the outlook for the economy does not look easy, especially the reluctance that inflation shows with the impact on family consumption.

In the first quarter, this last variable does not look as vigorous as we would like, for example in commerce, especially in retail activity.

Hence, last week Banco Base de Lorenzo Barrera will adjust its forecast for GDP growth in 2024 to 1.6%, almost in line with BofA’s Emilio Romano at 1.8%, and not that far from Bx+ of Antonio del Valle which is at 1.9%.

Although the Treasury Rogelio Ramírez de la O designed an expansive budget, at least in the first quarter its impact is not clear, especially the big questions due to the electoral anxiety and the change of government.

Although the latest data from ANTAD that he presides Diego Cosío Barto are not entirely unfavorable, with growth at same stores of 4.8% in January, 9% in February and 6.2% in March, for the second half of the year uncertainty prevails, and this is recognized by Cosío itself.

Yesterday, said group with 24 self-service chains among its ranks, 13 departmental and 56 specialized with 48,000 stores in the country and 650,000 workers, gave its numbers for the first quarter.

The turnover in that period was 366,300 million pesos, which implies a nominal growth of 5.9%, and 1.5% real.

Given the doubts about the situation and projects to grow throughout 2024, 4.8% in same stores, progress that without inflation will mean ending tables.

An element that could make this scenario improve is “nearshoring,” a phenomenon that would push for more jobs and therefore greater demand for satisfaction, although on the other hand there are many other variables that do not help.

Of course the insecurity with logistics thefts, ant thefts – in ANTAD stores they reach 1% of total sales – and extortion from crime. Informality adds to the atypical environment of the year, which in any case has not discouraged the investments of the members of that group, which since it is public will amount to over 2,000 million dollars, 11% more than in 2023.

However, challenging scenario for consumption.

IMEF ESCUESTA AND 63.7% OF ENTREPRENEURS OUT OF CAUTION IN 2024

Yes, in fact, the uncertainty in the economy due to the elections and a new government is already more than palpable. The IMEF that he presides Sunday Figueroa recently conducted a survey among its partners. One of the questions referred to the investment scheduled for 2024. Only 12.7% were willing to push hard, “more than what is required” to respond to nearshoring. However, 63.7% voted to adopt a cautious approach, which fits perfectly with the script.

WITHOUT INDICATIONS PAYMENT OF 8,000 MDP BY INSABI AND SUPPLY TO SHORTAGE

Of course, the debt of 8,000 million pesos that Insabi has Juan Antonio Ferrer with laboratories and distributors, is another factor that will complicate the medicine supply scenario in 2025 for the public sector, especially since there are no signs of covering it soon by that entity that replaced Seguro Popular. He also already told him that there are no advanced tenders to anticipate the change of government in October with the risk of greater shortages.

TOTAL PLAY RESTRUCTURES 90% OF ITS NOTES AND TAKES THEM TO 2028

Although Total Play of Ricardo Salinas and what does it take Eduardo Kuri had already taken a step forward by refinancing in February a significant tranche of its notes maturing in 2025, yesterday it announced another agreement to reschedule 518 million dollars, of a total of 575 million dollars, or 90%. This last effort totaled 304.5 million dollars. With this, firm progress was made in improving the capital structure, since the new paper will have maturities in 2028.

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