The response to the hurricane Otis In Acapulco it became clear that the armed forces are going through a drain on resources and personnel in the face of natural emergencies. By having so many missions in this six-year term, what is important has been blurred. That which for many years distinguished them and earned the appreciation of society for their ability to respond to aid the civilian population in cases of disaster. Beyond the looting of department stores and theft of fuel at gas stations, where in some cases elements of the National Guard were captured as participants, two weeks later there are people buried under the mud, entire colonies flooded with rubble without basic services, and A health emergency alert reflects the lack of efficiency in the face of chaos to bring order.
This scenario was planned since 2020 when a group of researchers from the Mexican Institute of Strategic Studies in National Security and Defense (IMEESDN), of the University of the Army and Air Force, prepared a study called “Consequences and possible scenarios due to the increase in activities entrusted to the armed forces.”
For analysts, the presence of soldiers in tasks that in principle correspond to other ministries of State is an indicator of their lack of capacity and reflects a weakening of the political system in Mexico that causes “the emergence of a support system.” “in the face of a governmental crash.”
The analysis provides elements on the legal bases of the participation of the armed forces to support other State institutions, something that lies in the five missions indicated in the Organic Law, where the first two refer to the defense of the country, the third to internal security and the last two to support other agencies and their actions in disaster cases.
The armed forces lack sufficient resources to act on all the fronts that the current government has entrusted to them. The rotation of troops is planned and executed in different missions to respond to the migratory emergency, the fight against “huachicol”, reduction of violence in different areas of the country, production of nurseries, interception of narcotics, construction of notable government works, creation of the National Guard, attention in cases of disaster, for which the Secretariat of National Defense lacks sufficient personnel to simultaneously support all missions, which implies reducing some permanent tasks such as the eradication of illicit plantations. “This situation causes fatigue in human and material resources, which demand rest and maintenance respectively. Furthermore, the constant change of missions requires different training for each of them.”
They warned that in a “trend scenario”, that is, the more tasks they accumulate, they would reach a “turning point” in their human and material resources, which will cause a reduction in the effectiveness of their missions. A public security crisis will arise in the cities where common crime (extortion, kidnapping, robbery) will emerge.” Something that appeared in Acapulco.
In reference to the thesis of essayist Nassim Taleb, they cite a “black swan” scenario, where “an unforeseen event (political, military or natural) may occur that transforms national needs and requires all available forces to contain its effects.” Although the armed forces see it as essential to generally continue to support national institutions and the people of Mexico, the mission should not be permanent. Today’s prominence can become the main claim of “opportunistic” political groups and prolonged exposure in public security activities can engender corruption in the troops”, something that has already happened in some cases.
They warn that the armed forces can prepare “unilaterally” to face a “black swan” if a budget, a mobile force and a group of lawyers are reserved to guarantee their legal participation in a “totally unforeseen” event.
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