President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s announcement to pause his government’s relations with the embassies of the United States and Canada is due to the alleged “interference” (as AMLO himself describes it) made by ambassadors Ken Salazar (US) and Grame Clark (Canada) against his initiative to reform the Judicial Branch.
This reaction by the Mexican president adds to many other decisions that have called into question the objectivity of his mandate not only at the local level but also at the international level. We are just a few weeks away from the end of the current federal government and, just as it began almost six years ago, when there was a notable polarization in the social mood, the López Obrador administration will close leaving its most important commercial partners with big questions.
But what implications does this diplomatic “pause” have for the interests of all Mexicans? First, it increases the already chronic tension between the governments of Mexico and the United States, but, above all, it leaves the renegotiation of the T-MEC up in the air. Specialists say that at least ten chapters of this trade agreement would be violated by the reform of the Judicial Branch, so the confidence of Canadian and American investors is considerably diminished by the lack of clarity about the legal framework and the autonomy of institutions in our country.
According to figures from the Bank of Mexico, today more than 66% of our country’s exports and imports are with Canada and the United States. (In 2023 alone, this trade exchange closed with more than 776 billion dollars for Mexico, which are in danger due to doubts about renewing the T-MEC, as published by Expansión magazine on August 26). As for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from the United States and Canada in Mexico, in 2023 it reached more than 17 billion dollars (47% of the total that our country received in the last year). As if that were not enough, the announcement of this diplomatic pause made the markets nervous, causing the dollar to exceed twenty pesos, a situation that could make imports more expensive and increase inflation. All Mexicans are already being affected.
Now, AMLO’s decision to cool diplomatic relations with the US and Canada also impacts the political environment in Mexico and the US. We are on the eve of the presidential elections in the United States and, as expected, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have taken migration as one of their main campaign flags. Although the mobilization of people is an issue that must be addressed in depth, when there are these types of diplomatic tensions, migration is usually in the discussions between Democrats and Republicans and, normally, Mexico does not come out well. Let us remember, for example, when Donald Trump was president of the United States and threatened to raise tariffs if the Mexican government did not contain the thousands of migrants arriving at the border between the two countries. AMLO ended up giving in and the “Stay in Mexico” program was created, with which thousands of migrants were forced to wait in Mexican territory for the judicial resolution on their request for asylum in the US.
We are facing a panorama of total uncertainty. The challenge now will be for the president-elect of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, who will have to put out this and the other fires that the current federal government will leave her. For now, AMLO and Sheinbaum met urgently on the same day that the president announced the diplomatic pause. Could it be that they discussed how to stop another storm in the face of the increase in the price of the dollar and the pressures, above all, from the US government?
While AMLO says he is pausing diplomatic relations with countries that are so important to the interests of our nation, more than a million people cross the border between Mexico and the US every day. Likewise, billions of dollars are traded month after month between Canadian, American and Mexican businessmen. In addition, Mexican governors, such as the governor of Coahuila, Manolo Jiménez Salinas, and the elected governor of Guanajuato, Libia Dennise García Muñoz Ledo, visit North American territory to establish commercial and labor relations that benefit their people. For all of these, there is no pause between the countries of North America.
Perhaps “taking a break,” as AMLO himself translated the diplomatic pause he declared with the US and Canada, is the same thing he proposed to Sheinbaum at the National Palace for the construction of the second floor of the so-called “4T.” The economic crisis that may come if the T-MEC is not signed does not leave those who will be in charge, as of October 1, 2024, of the future of our country without resources and breath.
Migration Issues Analyst
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