Mario Duarte Villarello*
Water is an increasingly scarce and contested resource due to anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, there is growing concern around the geopolitics of water, addressing not only water scarcity, but also its implications for environmental security, international security and the growing phenomenon of climate or environmental refugees.
Climate change exacerbates water scarcity in many regions. Prolonged droughts and erratic rainfall affect water availability in agricultural and urban areas, aggravating socioeconomic and political tensions, threatening food security and jeopardizing long-term environmental sustainability.
Competition for limited water resources exacerbates tensions between nation-states. Conflicts over control of shared rivers, such as the Nile or Indus, are increasingly common, and disputes over access to water could trigger large-scale armed conflicts in the future. Furthermore, control of freshwater sources is becoming a strategic factor in International Relations, which could alter the global balance of power. For example, “upstream” countries have a powerful weapon against countries that depend on tributaries, as is the case of Turkey with the Euphrates and Tigris, which originate in its territory and pass through Syria and Iraq before flowing into the Persian Gulf. Turkey has built several dams on both torrents as part of its hydroelectric development, which has generated tensions with its neighbors in an already complex region, which see their agricultural and electrical energy generation capacities threatened.
As environmental conditions worsen due to water scarcity and other impacts of climate change, the number of environmental refugees is expected to increase. Communities that depend on water resources for agriculture and daily life will be forced to leave their homes, potentially triggering large-scale humanitarian and migration crises. This is already observed in the Central American Dry Corridor and is part of the origin of the current migration phenomenon to the United States that passes through Mexico. Furthermore, it is important to highlight that in international law there is still no consensus on the figure of environmental refugees, which leaves thousands of people legally vulnerable, which adds to the other hardships they already suffer.
The geopolitics of water is a crucial issue that requires urgent attention at a global level. Coordinated policies and measures are needed at local, national and international levels. The sustainable management of water resources, mitigation and adaptation to climate change and the promotion of international cooperation are essential to ensure water and environmental security for future generations. Water scarcity is not only an environmental challenge, but also a matter of global security and stability. Only through a comprehensive and collaborative approach can we effectively address the complex issues associated with the geopolitics of water in an ever-changing world.
* Doctor in Political Science and International Relations, expert in international environmental policy and professor at the Faculty of Global Studies.
X: @MarDuVill, email: mdv@inbox.com