We are experiencing the preliminaries of a brutal rearrangement in world geopolitics. On the one hand, we have a political, economic and military alliance between China and Russia, which is an important counterweight to the West; and on the other hand, a United States close to its presidential election that seems more like a parade of absurdity and self-sabotage, with a president who talks to people who do not exist and a Trump growing and convincing, which can lead to an institutional crisis. of great significance if the Supreme Court removes him from the race.
The reconstruction of the world order is due to several factors. The first are recent military interventions, for example the Hamas attack on Israel, the attacks on Houthis in Yemen and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is about to complete 3 years without Kiev falling, but achieving the annexations of Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Lugansk, as well as Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.
Another factor is the economic one, where the emergence of the dollar as an international currency in countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America such as Brazil stands out, which allows them to reduce dependence on the US currency, especially at a time when We see a decadent United States incapable of bringing order to San Francisco, but that wants to continue being the policeman of the world without authentic leadership.
There is also the issue of debt, China owes 2.4 trillion and Russia 282 billion (both equivalent to 13% of its own GDP) while the United States has an external debt of 32.9 trillion dollars, which is equivalent to 122% of its own GDP; To give us an idea, Mexico has a debt of 880 billion, equivalent to 52% of its GDP.
Added to this is the growth of the BRICS, which initially consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but in recent years more countries such as Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia have been annexed, for example. which now concentrates 45% of the total population and 30% of the world economy.
Faced with the BRICS and the Belt and Road, the only way out for the United States is to consolidate the North American market, and they are clear about this, to the extent that Trump at the time threatened Emmanuel Macron over the digital tax on technology companies. Americans, increasing tariffs on French products by up to 100%.
Due to the above, Mexico’s role in this scenario becomes strategic, in which independence and diplomatic dignity become very important assets and can become the point of convergence of the two blocks.
The United States requires Mexico to maintain an aspiration for growth, and both Russia and China need friendship and closeness due to the country’s geographical position and commercial narrowness.
The reality is that conflicts will intensify, which will require greater caution. As they say on airplanes, fasten your seatbelts and get ready, turbulence is coming.