WASHINGTON, USA. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (B.M.) start their spring meetings this Monday with the optimism that the economy will grow more than expected this yeardespite the complex global situation derived from the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the increasing geopolitical polarization.
If just a year ago the managing director of IMF, Kristalina Georgievapainted pessimistically the times to come in the traditional ‘curtain raiser’ – the speech he delivers a few days before the event and which mark symbolic boot of the economic meeting -, this week the message was different.
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“Resilience and relief“were two terms that he spoke last Thursday in the center Atlantic Council in this year’s ‘curtain raiser’, in which he confirmed that four years after the pandemic a soft landing has been achieved and any fear of a recession has been removed.
“In view of the data, it is inevitable to breathe a sigh of relief. We have avoided a global recession and a period of stagflation, as some had predicted,” said the Bulgarian, who was re-elected to her position on Friday.
This coming Tuesday the institution of Bretton Woods will provide an update on the figures (its WEO report) which, according to Georgieva, will be slightly “stronger” than expected due to robust activity in the United States and several emerging economies.
The Spring Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund and of World Bank Group They bring together central bankers, finance and development ministers, legislators, private sector executives, representatives of civil society organizations and academics.
Over the course of a week, various forums and meetings will discuss issues of global interest, including global economic outlookpoverty eradication, economic development and aid effectiveness.
This year’s meetings come at a complex geopolitical moment, with two wars (Ukraine and Gaza), the Iranian offensive on Israel in retaliation for the attack in Damascus against its consulate and slight frictions between United States and Chinawho have not had so many negative economic consequences like those feared at first.
They also come at a time when Central banks are beginning to study the possibility of lowering interest ratesafter the increases produced in recent years to control high inflation due to the pandemic.
When to reduce rates will be one of the topics that will be talked about because, as mentioned Georgieva“Authorities must resist calls for early cuts“. The managing director will thus defend the Fund’s position that “a premature easing could generate new inflationary surprises.”
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Lowering excessive public debt and refinancing the debt of low-income countries will be another of theThe main topics that will be discussed, as confirmed on Friday by the president of the World Bank (WB), Ajay Bangain a talk with the media.
Banga will also insist these days on one of his main messages since he arrived at the World Bank last year, the need for invest more in green projects.