The January cost could last at least until March and at levels above four percent, estimated analysts consulted by The Sun of Mexico a few days before the end of 2023.
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Alain Jaimes, senior analyst at Signum Researchstated that the rise in prices of goods and services, as well as energy and agricultural products, will put pressure on inflation.
“In the case of Januarynot only the underlying component would put pressure, but the non-core will also exert some pressure from its equity components. energetic and some agricultural”he explained.
He advanced that, the inflation levels will be above four percent during the following year, “but it will depend largely on how the data evolves and if there are no external shocks that alter the trajectory.”
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Jorge Sánchez, senior economist at FinamexI affirm that The January slope will be driven by the increase in prices of food and services.
“In the first fifteen days of the first month of 2024there will be major price adjustmentsespecially in the segment of goods nutritional that can even reach historical levels.
From the first fortnight of January from this year to the first 15 days of Decemberthe inflation general accumulated was located in 4.36 percent annually.
This result represented his highest level since the second half of December 2022when it stood at 7.86 percent annually, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
The product that became most expensive was poblano chile with a cumulative increase of 74 percentfollowed by the onion with a 65.5 percent increase and the air transport with 64.6 percent.
On the contrary, the products that presented a deflation were the serrano chile with 49.5 percent, natural domestic gas with 19.8 percentthe computers with 19.2 percent and the tomato with 15.5 percent.
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Jaimes commented that despite the disinflationary process of the National Consumer Price Index (INPC)the Iunderlying inflation (which does not include the most volatile products such as fuels), has diminished in a more limited way.
“Although we have seen a disinflationary process in the general inflation index As a consequence of the release of bottlenecks around the world, fiscal stimuli in fuel prices and a marked effect on the exchange rate, the underlying index (which better reflects inflationary pressures) has decreased more modestly, which previously pressured by its food merchandise and services segments.
The experts consulted agreed that the Package Against Inflation and Famine (PACIC)implemented by the federal government, has had limited scope and is expected to continue this way, despite the fact that its extension was announced for the first half of 2024.
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They commented that the real support against inflation has come from the actions of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and the external conditions in the supply chains that have caused the normalization of prices. According to analysts consulted by the central bank, the INPC will end next year at a four percent level.