The states of Chiapas, Colima, Guerrero, Michoacán, Morelos and Jalisco present a very high risk of intervention by organized crime in the elections that will take place on June 2, warns the first report of political violence prepared by Integralia Consultores.
An example of the risk is that of the eight murders of candidates for elected office that Integralia reports since the beginning of the electoral process, seven occurred in states with a very high risk of crime intervention and in all seven cases they involved candidates for a local office such as municipal presidencies.
The fact that most of the positions to which the murdered figures aspired are of a local order is due, according to the consultancy report, to the fact that criminal groups mainly submit to municipal governments to build their authority, since in this way they access resources such as the collaboration of police to operate with full impunity, diversify their activities and neutralize their rivals.
Due to the above, Integralia warns that the holding of elections for municipal presidencies is a risk factor for the intervention of organized crime, since the groups need governments that can offer them greater impunity at the territorial level and only in the current electoral process is this possible. 1,902 municipal presidencies will renew, according to data from the National Electoral Institute (INE).
The report also indicates that strategic municipalities for organized crime with high electoral competitiveness are a risk, because criminal groups intervene in processes where their candidates are at risk of losing the election.
Other factors that make the intervention of organized crime in the aforementioned entities probable, according to the report, are the presence of illicit markets, in addition to drug trafficking, because they are interested in territories where they can do very profitable business; criminal groups in armed conflict, because they need to take over governments to tip the balance in their favor; weak rule of law because they advance where there is less resistance from the authorities of the three levels of government.
On the other hand, the states of Baja California, Chihuahua, Sonora, State of Mexico, Tabasco, Tamaulipas, Veracruz and Zacatecas present a high risk of intervention by criminal groups, while Aguascalientes, Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Durango, Hidalgo, Nayarit . Querétaro and Yucatán register a very low risk of intervention.
Integralia Consultores indicates that it is possible to reduce the risks of political-electoral violence for public officials, candidates and political parties in the medium term, however, it highlights that currently public security institutions and judicial courts lack the capabilities to significantly curb the intervention of organized crime in the elections.
The consulting firm suggests as ideas to recover sovereignty in the territories that all levels of government accept that organized crime already rules in several territories and include the issue in their agendas; that the Mexican state assume the responsibility of combating criminal groups effectively, not only through military force, but also by cutting off all their sources of income, dismantling their intelligence systems and taking away their social bases; and discourage the intervention of organized crime in elections by relaxing the burden of proof for annulling elections.