Crystal ball 2024 – El Sol de México

A few days before the end of 2023, beyond the recounting of what happened in this busy year, it is advisable to keep on the radar the events that will occupy us and possibly worry us for the following year. Although the future cannot be predicted in a crystal ball, we can prevent, warn and prepare for some of the events that we know will occur in 2024. Here are the 5 essentials:

1. Elections in Mexico: On June 2, 2024, the largest electoral process that has ever existed in the country will take place. Not only will the Federal Executive and Legislature be renewed, but there will be elections in the 32 federal entities where Governorships, Head of Government of Mexico City, Local Congresses, City Councils, Municipal Boards and Mayors’ Offices will be elected, adding in total more than 19 thousand positions public. The National Electoral Institute and the Electoral Tribunal of the Judicial Branch of the Federation (TEPJF) will be in charge of conducting and settling the electoral activities.

2. Crises pending resolution: The Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation will continue to be in the eye of the hurricane. Among the list of pending cases are those related to the decree reforming the Electrical Industry Law, regarding lithium and natural gas, as well as the cancellation of children’s stays and what will happen to the trusts of the Judicial Branch of the Federation.

3. Appointments: In 2023, appointments of key organizations for the country’s democracy were left behind. Specifically from the TEPJF, the National Transparency Institute (INAI), the Federal Telecommunications Institute (IFT), the National Anti-Corruption System and the National Hydrocarbons Commission. In addition to being latent, the president’s intention is to send a reform to the next session of Congress to eliminate several autonomous organizations and transform the Judicial Branch of the Federation.

4. Elections in the United States: The next presidential elections in our northern neighbor will be on November 5, 2024. States and political parties will hold primary elections and their party caucuses. This process happens amid uncertainty about presidential candidates, such as whether Trump will be on the ballot or not. What happens will undoubtedly have an impact on immigration and trade policy. The first is a transcendental issue for national security policy and human rights and, the second, related to the nearshoring phenomenon that is benefiting our country, but that will make noise in Mexico’s relationship with China and the United States.

5. Pressure on public finances: The budget approved for 2024 will not be austere. The 9 trillion 66 billion pesos are not free. Debt for 1.7 billion pesos will be contracted and a financial cost of the debt of 1.3 billion pesos will be paid. The states and municipalities of the country will have a cut of (-)0.01% in real terms compared to the 2023 Federation Expenditure Budget (IMCO). There will also be a cut concentrated in autonomous organizations. The pressure will come from three aspects: low tax collection, a drop in oil revenues and an increase in resources for pension payments.

With 2024 will come an electoral, legislative and legal agenda that will have to be followed closely. The new year will also bring with it new challenges, but above all new opportunities. Dear readers, thank you very much for joining me in this ending year, may 2024 be a great year. Very happy holidays and best wishes!

*Manuel Guadarrama is a master in public policies and university professor. The opinions expressed in this column are personal and do not reflect the institutional position.

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