Demographic projections and development – El Sol de México

The exercise of government from a rights-based approach is based on the assumption that people—all of us—are susceptible to public interventions, called public programs and policies as the first line (that is why all the inhabitants of a State have permanent contact with the action). public, even if they do not enter into any controversy). Thus, changes in the integration of the population, projections and global and national demographic trends have a direct impact on government decision-making. Just in November 2022, the world population reached 8 billion inhabitants, according to the World Population Prospects Report published by the UN. This event suggests the need to rethink some of the challenges posed by demographic change in the world, largely because there are implications for the population distribution of some issues, such as the age of the population.

Regarding the topic, last week, on Thursday, April 4 of this year, Dr. Silvia Giorguli —President of El Colegio de México— gave a conference on the demographic future in Mexico, at the headquarters of the Superior Audit of the Federation. The presentation produced some reflections, analyzes and conclusions that are not obvious, and change our perspective on many topics. Regarding these, she would mention at least three general comments: the first is related to how demographic projections impact government decision-making and the design of public policies; The second refers to the social and economic changes required by demographic dynamics, for example in the evolution of labor markets; The third refers to the relevance of analyzing how the social phenomena of violence or the lack of opportunities in certain regions of the world have caused migration to also be a relevant factor that modifies

In the case of Mexico, population growth—the so-called demographic dividend in the 20th century—caused changes in the country’s economic integration and some reforms to take advantage, in economic terms, of the population, understood as a valuable resource. Now, this boom is mediated by other variables such as return migration (Mexican population that resided in other countries, especially the United States of America, and returns to their communities of origin) and migration from countries with economic crisis or social problems. such as insecurity and violence.

On the other hand, changes in the characteristics of the population in our country, especially due to the decrease in the fertility rate and population growth below 2.1 sons/daughters as an ideal replacement fertility, pose challenges in terms of policies. public policies and guarantees of rights for people. The challenges from demographic projections are diverse given that the population, just as Dr. Giorguli presented, is in an aging process that prospectively by the year 2050 will require greater investments for social protection and care tasks.

Demographic trends support the imperative of predicting that the population, towards the year 2050, will require a system focused on its well-being with policies such as: financially sustainable pension systems, care policies and health systems for the population that – thanks to the advances in science and technology—has a longer life expectancy.

Having stated the above, we can say that demographic projections (longer life expectancy, aging, reduction in the young population, low mobility in labor markets, etc.) directly affect public policy decision-making.

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