Chiapas, Colima, Guerrero, Michoacán, Morelos and Jalisco present a very high risk of intervention organized crime in the local elections on June 2, warns the First Report of political violence 2024 prepared by Integralia Consultores.
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An example of the risk is that of the eight murders of applicants to a popularly elected position that Integralia has reported since the beginning of the electoral processseven occurred in states with a very high risk of crime intervention and in all seven cases they involved candidates for a City Hall.
The fact that most of the positions to which the men aspired are of a local order murdered characters It is due, according to the consultant’s report, to the fact that criminal groups They mainly subject municipal governments to build their authority, since in this way they access resources such as the collaboration of police to operate with full impunity, diversify their activities, and neutralize their rivals.
Due to the above, Integralia warns that the celebration of presidential elections municipalities is a risk factor for the intervention of the organized crimesince the groups need governments that can offer them greater impunity at the territorial level and only in the current electoral process 1,902 municipal presidencies will be renewed, according to data from the INational Electoral Institute (INE).
The report also indicates that strategic municipalities for the organized crime with high electoral competitiveness are a risk, because the criminal groups They intervene in the processes where their candidates They are at risk of losing the election.
Other factors that make the intervention of the organized crime in the aforementioned entities, according to the report, are the presence of illicit markets, in addition to the drug traffickingbecause they are interested in territories where they can do very profitable business; criminal groups in armed conflict, because they need to co-opt governments to tip the balance in their favor; Weak rule of law because they advance where there is less resistance from the authorities of the three levels of government.
On the other hand, the states of Baja California, Chihuahua, Sonora, State of Mexico, Tabasco, Tamaulipas, Veracruz and Zacatecas present a high risk of intervention criminal groups, while Aguascalientes, Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Durango, Hidalgo, Nayarit. Querétaro and Yucatán register a very low risk of intervention.
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Integralia Consultores indicates that it is possible to reduce the risks of political-electoral violence for public officials, candidates and political parties In the medium term, however, it highlights that currently public security institutions and judicial courts lack the capabilities to significantly stop the intervention of the organized crime In the elections.
The consulting firm suggests as ideas to recover sovereignty in the territories that all levels of government accept that the organized crime already rules in several of those territories and includes the issue on its agendas; that the Mexican state assumes the responsibility of combating the criminal groups effectively, not only through military force, but also by cutting off all its sources of income, dismantling its intelligence systems and taking away its social bases; and discourage the intervention of organized crime in the elections through the relaxation of the burden of proof for annulment of elections.